Weekly Policy Blog: 2024 Election Results
By: Colorado BioScience Association Date: 11/12/2024
After a long election season, the results are finally in (mostly). Overall, the theme of Colorado’s election results is “status quo.” At the State Capitol, Senate Democrats will continue to have a simple majority. However, due to continuing vote tabulations in two tight races, it looks like House Democrats may end up losing their supermajority.
With the presidential election going to Republican Donald Trump, Republicans winning the majority in the U.S. Senate, and Republicans almost certainly winning the majority in the U.S. House, there looks to be a Republican trifecta at the federal level. CBSA will continue to follow important open questions about “How a Trump presidency could affect the FDA, the biotech industry, and its stocks,” as well as other repercussions of the election.
Thank you to our lobbyists at Colorado Legislative Strategies for this overview of the 2024 election results.
Introduction
Although Colorado is a solid blue state, there was no shortage of commercials and mailers for some of the state’s biggest races – and those came with a big price tag. At the state level, over $8 million was spent on targeted races across Colorado, and it paid off for Republicans in the Senate and possibly in the House. At the federal level, Colorado’s 8th Congressional District saw over $20 million in super PAC spending. Colorado didn’t have any major statewide seats up for election this year, so all eyes were on three congressional races – CD 3, CD 4 and CD 8.
The stakes were high on both sides of the aisle this election cycle, especially at the state level. On the House side, every seat is up for election every two years with a limit of four terms. In 2022, Democrats obtained a “supermajority” in the House after picking up several Republican seats. This year, Republicans needed to pick up three of their five targeted races to avoid another Democrat supermajority.
On the Senate side, seats are up every four years, with a limit of two terms. Senate seats that are up for election alternate every two years. This year, the Senate was in a similar position to the House. Republicans needed to either pick up or maintain three of their five targeted seats to avoid going into a Democrat supermajority.
On top of the already high stakes, it wouldn’t be an election year in Colorado without some Secretary of State drama. About two weeks ago, the Colorado Republican Party drew attention to a public spreadsheet posted by the Colorado Secretary of State, Jena Griswold. The spreadsheet included a hidden tab with passwords for several of the state’s voting systems, affecting 34 out of 64 counties. The document had been posted for four months, and the passwords weren’t changed for five days after Griswold’s office discovered the error.
Griswold has consistently stated the document was mistakenly posted by a staff member who no longer works for the Secretary of State’s office, and that the state’s voting system had not been compromised after further investigation. That being said, Republican leadership still called for Griswold’s resignation, and the incident even got the attention of the Trump campaign. This is not the first time Griswold has been involved in a mishap during an election year. In 2022, Griswold appeared in a taxpayer funded commercial related to election integrity while she was running for reelection.
It looks like the status quo will be the main takeaway from the election in Colorado. Some races are still too close to call, but below is a summary of current results. Latest results from the Secretary of State can be found here.
Federal
Congressional District 3 – Republican Jeff Hurd defeated Adam Frisch (D) with 50.4 percent in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District to replace Congresswoman Lauren Boebert. This seat is historically a reliably red seat, but it was briefly considered to be a competitive toss-up seat when Boebert was running for reelection. Since Boebert moved to the 4th Congressional District and Hurd became the Republican candidate, the seat became less competitive. Frisch started his campaign almost immediately after he narrowly lost to Boebert in 2022 and raised more than $10 million. He dominated the airwaves and sent multiple mailers trying to paint Hurd as an out of touch candidate who wouldn’t represent the largely rural district’s voters. Hurd focused his campaign on being a less controversial figure than Boebert, stating he would focus on “making local headlines instead of national headlines.”
Congressional District 4 – Republican Lauren Boebert defeated Trisha Calaverse (D) with 53.8 percent in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District. Up until this election cycle, Boebert has represented the 3rd Congressional District, but moved to the 4th Congressional District earlier this year. Boebert has made national headlines in her tenure in Congress, and even though it was expected that she would win the election in this reliably red district, the final outcome was almost 10 points less than what her predecessor won by in 2022.
Congressional District 5 – Republican Jeff Crank easily won his race against River Gassen (D) with 54.7 percent. Crank will replace Congressman Doug Lamborn (R), who announced earlier this year that he will not seek a 10th term representing Colorado’s 5th Congressional District.
Congressional District 8 – Republican candidate (and current State Representative) Gabe Evans pulled ahead and defeated sitting U.S. Representative Yadira Caraveo (D). Yadira conceded to Evans on Sunday after he pulled ahead by over 2,500 votes. This has been one of the closest-watched races in the country as the outcome helps determine who controls the U.S. House.
Other Congressional Districts – Dianna DeGette (D) won CD 1 with over 76 percent. Joe Neguse (D) won CD 2 with over 68 percent. Jason Crow (D) won CD 6 with almost 59 percent. Brittany Pettersen (D) won CD 7 by over 55 percent.
Overall Federal Delegation – Out of the 10 federal seats (2 Senators and 8 Representatives), Colorado Republicans gained one seat, bringing the totals to four Republicans and six Democrats.
State Senate
Overview
Republicans were able to prevent a Democrat supermajority in the Senate this year. With 23 Democrats going into this election cycle, Republicans needed to hold onto 12 seats in order to avoid going into a superminority. Of the five closest races, Republicans needed to either maintain or pick up three seats, and they did.
Senate District 5 – In what was expected to be one of the closest state Senate races, current House member Marc Catlin (R) was able to maintain this seat for Republicans, defeating Cole Buerger (D) with 52.1 percent. This western slope district has a mixture of agriculture, tourism and energy development, and both candidates ran campaigns focused on being pragmatic problem solvers who would reach across the aisle to pass policies important to Western Colorado. Political observers believe that Catlin benefited from a strong “get out the vote” effort in local county commissioner races.
Senate District 6 – Incumbent Cleave Simpson (R) was able to hold onto his seat in the Senate, defeating Vivian Smotherman (D) with 55.9 percent. This was another close race and a seat Republicans needed to maintain in order to avoid a Democrat supermajority. This was one of the earliest races to be called, with Smotherman conceding the race around 10:00 p.m. The district is located in southwest Colorado and also includes the San Luis Valley. Simpson has focused his efforts on agricultural and education issues and is considered to be one of the strongest experts on water policy.
Senate District 12 – Current state House member Representative Marc Snyder (D) defeated El Paso County Commissioner Stan Vanderwerf with 48.9 percent. This is another Republican seat picked up by Democrats.
Senate District 13 – Scott Bright (R) defeated Matt Johnston (D) with 56.7 percent. This is a big win for Republicans, who managed to take back this seat after it was held by Kevin Priola, a Republican who changed his party affiliation in 2022 thus giving the seat to the Democrats. Bright has a background in education and early childhood development.
Senate District 16 – Incumbent Chris Kolker (D) defeated Robyn Carnes (R) with 52.2 percent. At the beginning of the summer, many thought this race could’ve been competitive because it’s the first election cycle that this seat has seen since redistricting made the district a true toss-up. But, suburban voters have trended towards Democrats in the last couple of cycles and this race extended that trend.
Senate Democratic Leadership – Senate Democrats met after the election to elect new leadership positions:
President of the Senate – James Coleman (Denver)
Majority Leader – Robert Rodriguez (Denver)
Assistant Majority Leader – Lisa Cutter (Arvada)
Majority Whip – Nich Hinrichsen (Pueblo)
Majority Caucus Chair – Dylan Roberts (Eagle County)
President Pro-Tempore – Dafna Michaelson Jenet (Commerce City)
Joint Budget Committee – Jeff Bridges (Greenwood Village), Judy Amabile (Boulder)
Senate Republican Leadership – Senate Republicans met after the election to elect new leadership positions:
Minority Leader – Paul Lundeen (Monument)
Assistant Minority Leader – Cleave Simpson (Alamosa)
Minority Whip – Janice Rich (Grand Junction)
Minority Caucus Chair – Byron Pelton (Sterling)
Joint Budget Committee – Barb Kirkmeyer (Fort Lupton)
State House
Overview
In 2022, Democrats picked up enough seats to gain a supermajority in the House. Going into this election cycle, 46 Democrats and 19 Republicans held House seats. It remains to be seen how large a majority Democrats will hold going forward, but they will not hold a margin as large as the 46-19 edge they held over the past two years. Due to continuing vote tabulations in two tight races, it looks like House Democrats may end up losing their supermajority. As Ed Sealover explains: “If Republicans hold the lead in both of those races, it will reduce the Democratic majority to a 43-22 margin — still a huge gap, but one vote short of Dems holding a two-thirds supermajority in the House. Only with a supermajority can a majority party override gubernatorial vetoes, put constitutional amendments onto the ballot and change floor rules without needing any consent from the minority party.”
House District 16 – Republican challenger Rebecca Keltie is now ahead of State Representative Stephanie Vigil (D) by only 21 votes. There are still votes to be counted, so this is a close one to watch.
House District 19 – In one of the most highly contested House races, Republican candidate Dan Woog (R) is now winning with 207 more votes than Jillaire McMillan (D). This was Woog’s seat in the House until he was unseated by Jennifer Parenti (D) in 2022. This year would’ve been a rematch of 2022, but Parenti pulled out of this race over the summer and McMillan was designated to take her place as the Democrat candidate.
House District 25 – Incumbent Tammy Story (D) will hold onto her House seat after defeating challenger George Mumma (R) with 52.1 percent. While this was a targeted race, the support of unions helped Story keep this seat.
House District 43 – Incumbent Bob Marshall (D) will hold onto his House seat after defeating challenger Matt Burcham (R) with 51.1 percent. Marshall surprised everyone when he won this seat in 2022 given that the district leans 7 percent in Republican’s favor so this was considered to be one the Republicans could pick up. Voters showed that they appreciated Marshall’s independent streak and sent him back to the Capitol.
House District 50 – While this race was still too close to call on Wednesday, Representative Mary Young (D) has now conceded to her challenger Ryan Gonzales (R). Young served three terms, winning her last reelection by about 300 votes over Gonzales, who ran against her in 2022 as well. This would have been Young’s final term in the House. Gonzales’ win is likely the biggest upset we saw in state House races.
House Democratic Leadership – House Democrats met after the election to elect new leadership positions:
Speaker of the House – Julie McCluskie (Silverthorne)
Majority Leader – Monica Duran (Wheat Ridge)
Assistant Majority Leader – Jennifer Bacon (Denver)
Majority Co-Whips – Matthew Martinez (Alamosa) and Iman Jodeh (Aurora)
Co-Majority Caucus Chairs – Mandy Lindsay (Aurora) and Junie Joseph (Boulder)
* The Speaker will be appointing the position of Speaker Pro Tempore and the two JBC members in the near future.
House Republican Leadership – House Republicans met after the election to elect new leadership positions:
Minority Leader – Rose Pugliese (Colorado Springs)
Assistant Minority Leader – Ty Winter (Colorado Springs)
Minority Whip – Ryan Armagost (Berthoud)
Minority Caucus Chair – Anthony Hartsook (Parker)
Joint Budget Committee – Rick Taggart (Grand Junction)
Ballot Measures
Amendment G – The ballot measure to expand the current property tax exemption for veterans to include disabled veterans passed with 72.4 percent.
Amendment H – The ballot measure to create an independent board to deal with judicial discipline procedures passed with 72.7 percent.
Amendment I – Fixing an oversight from when the death penalty was repealed in 2020, this measure passed with 69.3 percent to allow a judge to deny bail for people accused of first degree murder.
Amendment J – Voters overwhelmingly supported this measure to repeal the current definition of marriage in the state Constitution with 63.7 percent.
Amendment K – The ballot measure to push election deadlines back by a week for the Secretary of State failed, with 55.3 percent of voters voting against the measure.
Proposition JJ – The ballot measure that allows the state to keep excess tax revenue from sports betting to go toward water projects overwhelmingly passed with 75.8 percent.
Proposition KK – Voters passed this measure with 54 percent to impose a 6.5 percent tax on guns and ammunition sales.
Amendment 79 – The ballot measure to allow state money to be used for abortion funding passed with 61 percent.
Proposition 80 – The ballot measure to enshrine the right to school choice in Colorado’s constitution failed, with 52 percent of voters voting against the measure.
Proposition 127 – The measure to ban the hunting of mountain lions, bobcats, and lynx in Colorado failed with 55 percent of voters voting against the measure.
Proposition 128 – The ballot measure to increase the parole eligibility requirement for individuals convicted of violent crimes passed with 62.3 percent.
Proposition 129 – Regardless of political party, Coloradans love their pets. The measure to create a new position in the veterinary field called a “veterinary professional associate,” passed with 52.3 percent.
Proposition 130 – Despite the state’s nearly $1 billion budget deficit situation, the ballot measure to increase funding for law enforcement by $350 million passed with 53 percent.
Proposition 131 – The controversial measure to implement ranked choice voting in Colorado for most races at the federal and state level failed with 55 percent of voters voting against the measure.
Other Races
Board of Education – All of the State Board of Education candidates retained relatively comfortable margins. In Congressional District 2, Kathy Gebhardt (D) received 100 percent of the vote running unopposed. In Congressional District 3, Sherri Wright (R) won with 56 percent of the vote. In Congressional District 4, Kristi Burton Brown (R) won with 59 percent of the vote. In Congressional District 8, Yazmin Navarro (R) won with 51 percent of the vote.
University of Colorado Regents – All of the University of Colorado regents also won by relatively comfortable margins. Elliot Hood (D) won the at large seat with over 50 percent of the vote. In Congressional District 3, Ray Scott (R) won with 56 percent of the vote. In Congressional District 5, Ken Montera (R) won with 58 percent of the vote.